![]() ![]() By volume, October new-vehicle sales were up 2.9% from September. October’s total new-light-vehicle sales were up 9.6% year over year, with one less selling day than in October 2021. Speaking of new car supply, Manheim has some lovely insights into the state of the market. Oh, and from where I’m standing, I’d think used car prices are only going to continue to drop as new car supply increases. Get ready for loads of write-downs heading into year-end. So what does all of this mean? Well, every dealer who bought used inventory at the top of the market and let it sit on the lot with high profit margins is likely not thrilled right now. MMR is basically Manheim’s version of Kelley Blue Book or NADA Guides – a way of valuing used cars. Over the month of October, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98.2%, meaning market prices were below MMR values. In addition, pricing continues to fall behind what Manheim expects. On the negative side, the last truly normal month before the fan hit the shit was February 2020, with the index clocking in at 143.5, so we still have a long way to go before things return to anything resembling “normal.” On the plus side, the index is down from peak January silliness of 236.3, so the slow return to no longer screaming is happening. While, for some, it’s good to hear that the Index is now sitting at 200 points flat, there are a few things to keep in mind. While wholesale trends don’t always directly correlate to retail trends, the Manheim Index is a useful leading indicator of where the car market is going. In case you’re not a frequent reader of The Morning Dump, Manheim is a massive wholesale auction house that shifts more than five million cars a year, so it has a ton of data on wholesale car values. Used car wholesale values continue to drop with the latest Manheim Index update showing decline through October, down 4.5 points from last month to sit at 200 flat - that’s down 10.6 percent from last October’s 223.7. Used Car Wholesale Values Drop 10.6 Percent Year-Over-Year, Per Maheim Photo credit: “Used car dealer in Miami” by ryantxr is marked with CC BY 2.0. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday. Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. All this and more in today’s issue of The Morning Dump. Used car wholesale values kept sliding through October, Carvana’s value is absolutely tanking, Europe’s expected to import a ton of Chinese-made cars. ![]()
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